Every year, the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) releases an Automotive Trends report to highlight shifts in total emissions, fuel economy, vehicle performance, and other data from the nation’s light-duty vehicle fleet. The 2024 report (released in January 2025) showed some stark differences with past automotive trends, dating back to 1975. Here’s what we learned from reading the report.

Takeaway 1

Average fuel economy and per-mile carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions have reached milestones thanks primarily to electrification.

Figure 2.1 - Estimated Real-World Fuel Economy and CO₂ Emissions

Figure 2.1 is probably the most striking of all the figures in this report. It highlights the impact that EVs have had on the overall fuel economy and CO₂ emissions rates. Every year from 1975 to the present, for all the new vehicles released into the market that year, it shows the real-world CO₂ emissions on a per-mile basis (top graph) and the real-world fuel economy (MPG) (bottom graph). 

In 2023, the fleet of all new vehicles, electric and traditional gas cars, achieved the lowest average CO₂ emissions rate on record, 319 grams of CO₂ per mile. What this graph shows us, though, is that without EVs on this road, this figure would be much higher, at 357 grams of CO₂ per mile. If you look closely at the graph, you can see that without EVs, the average emissions of the fleet would not have changed much at all in the last ten years. 

Fuel economy is a measure of how efficient a vehicle is on a gallon of gas (MPG) or a mile per gas equivalent (MPGe, if the car is electric). With EVs on the road, American-owned vehicles in 2024 were the most efficient ever at 27.1 MPG on average; this number drops to 24.9 miles per gallon if EVs weren’t in the picture.  

Viewing these two graphs side by side, it’s clear that quite simply, we have squeezed all the efficiency gains out of internal combustion engines that we can. 

Takeaway 2

While the overall fuel economy has improved and per-mile CO₂ emissions have declined, some automakers become less efficient in both areas as of 2023.  

Carbon dioxide emissions have decreased, and fuel economy has improved, but this does not mean that all manufacturers are actively working toward making their vehicles cleaner. The graph below illustrates shifts in fuel economy and CO₂ emissions by manufacturers. While nine automakers have improved in both areas, with greater fuel efficiency and less CO₂ emissions, four manufacturers became less efficient than before (Subaru, Honda, Mazda, and General Motors).

Figure 2.5 - Changes in Estimated Real-World Fuel Economy and CO₂ Emissions by Manufacturer

Looking at this graphic more closely, we have a bunch of thoughts: 

• It doesn’t surprise us that Hyundai, Nissan, and Kia experienced such advances in fuel economy because they have had years in the EV game to improve their vehicles. 
• Subaru’s backslide may be due to the fact that its one EV, the Solterra, was not a bestselling EV in 2023.
• Mercedes jumped considerably in efficiency; this might be because the manufacturer has steadily released new EVs and PHEVs in recent years.
• In 2019, Volkswagen released its first EV, part of what would be known as its all-electric I.D. series. This is likely the reason behind Volkswagen’s increase in efficiency.
  
• Toyota was the first manufacturer to release a hybrid vehicle, the Toyota Prius, in 1997.  The manufacturer remained committed to alternative fuels and has released and maintained a series of plug-in hybrids, the Prius Prime, and the Rav 4. This may account for Toyota’s greater efficiency over this period. 
• BMW began selling the i3 in 2013 and has improved this model, as well as released other EVs, over the years since. This long involvement in EV production likely makes BMW more efficient than other manufacturers. 
• GM and Honda, two manufacturers that now produce high-performing EVs, experienced a decrease in the fuel economy and an increase in emissions rates through 2023. We are optimistic that the numbers for GM and Honda will improve for 2024 and beyond. Their sales of EVs are increasing.

Takeaway 3

Consumers are favoring heavier vehicles that emit more carbon dioxide than smaller cars.

Since 2004, heavier vehicles have steadily gained market share, marking a turning point where average new vehicle weight, fuel economy, and horsepower began increasing together. For the previous twenty-year period, Americans had favored lighter cars. More and more SUVs and pickup trucks have been flooding the roads ever since. We see that they are getting larger every year.  The EPA report credits this change to shifting market trends, but let’s dig deeper. The main reasons that cars are getting bigger and heftier are due to federal policy and weak fuel economy standards. Figure 3.5 illustrates this pattern and depicts the difference in vehicle weight by car type since model year 1975. While cars have become heavier overall (with the exception of sedans and wagons), SUVs and pickups quite literally outweigh the others on this graph.

Figure 3.5 - Average New Vehicle Weight by Vehicle Type

Takeaway 4

The average range for battery-electric vehicles is 292 miles, almost four times the average range of 2011.

Graph 4.19 depicts how the average range has improved alongside fuel economy over the years. The dips in recent years, for both BEVs and PHEVs, can be attributed to the rise in popularity of heavier vehicles. We would like to see the recent trend reversed and we think it will because a large battery adds cost to a vehicle that many consumers would like to avoid.  

Figure 4.19 - Charge Depleting Range and Fuel Economy for BEVs and PHEVs

The Big Picture

The impacts of EVs stretch over several areas: improved fuel economy and lowered emissions rates, a booming global industry, and the rise of new domestic manufacturing hubs at home. Federal manufacturing credits, thanks to the Inflation Reduction Act, incentivized manufacturers to invest in battery plants and domestic manufacturing. Whether the tax credits remain or not, the global transportation sector will continue to electrify and EVs will remain the driving force behind fuel efficiency and lowered emissions.